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Monday, 31 December, 2007

Death Stats
(with comments)

The question:

On the Montel Williams show, Sylvia Browne recently stated that most people die within three months of their birthdays; is this true?

The answer:

Though TV psychic Sylvia Browne has a long history of documented failures and misstatements, one must give credit where credit is due: Sylvia Browne is correct that most people die within three months of their birthday.

The explanation.


Permalink | Posted in General |
  1. By . Comment posted 31-Dec-2007 @04:23pm:
    And you have a 50% chance of being above average!
  2. By Dave. Comment posted 31-Dec-2007 @04:33pm:
    I think it was a Dilbert cartoon where the pointy-haired boss was annoyed that 40% of all sick days occurred on Mondays and Fridays.
  3. By Banjo Brad. Comment posted 31-Dec-2007 @09:19pm:
    I hope they mean "birthday anniversary date," or else most newborns don't survive three months!
  4. By Snag. Comment posted 31-Dec-2007 @09:33pm:
    There are some good links on that site !
  5. By Kashmarek. Comment posted 01-Jan-2008 @04:38am:
    Anybody can make a 50/50 prediction and be right half the time by chance. Nod credit due for this one.
  6. By Indigo Kid. Comment posted 01-Jan-2008 @09:00am:
    To quote the article:

    most people (including Browne) probably begin counting from the target person's month of birth. This allows for three months before the birth, the month of the birth, and three months after the birth, for seven out of twelve months. Since this range covers well over half the year (in fact, just under 60 percent of it)

    end quote

    It is obvious why the author chose to be a writer rather than a mathemetician...

    Also there is a very big logical gap in this statement "Sylvia Browne is correct that most people die within three months of their birthday."

    Knowing that within 3 months encompasses half the year (50%) does not prove that 'most' people die within that 6 months period. Only a study of death certificates would provide that information.

    The article mostly proves how easy it is to convince people anything you want to convince them. Religon has done this since man first created god.
  7. By . Comment posted 01-Jan-2008 @09:07am:
    I don't understand your point, Indigo Kid. The author states, "Part of the answer depends on how strictly and specifically you wish to interpret the question."
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